Southern African Scenarios 2015: Renaissance, Asymmetry or Decline and Decay

Image: Flickr, Flowcomm
Image: Flickr, Flowcomm

How can Southern African governments, policy planners, businesses, the donor community, aid agencies and NGOs improve their strategic decision-making for the coming decade? One vital tool for clearer analysis is the design of future scenarios.

Southern African Scenarios 2015 examines the prevailing social, political and economic conditions in the Southern African region and sketches three possible scenarios for each of the key factors or drivers (such as health, trade and investment) that are likely to determine the future of the region in the next 15 years.

Prepared by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) and funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), this book sets out three scenarios for the region: The renaissance scenario, in which positive elements reinforce each other in benefiting the region; The asymmetrical scenario, in which key drivers unfold in an uneven pattern or have a differentiated impact on Southern African countries; and The decline and decay scenario, in which negative regional drivers (such as HIV/AIDS) undermine positive policies and initiatives and threaten regional development.

For the region to achieve higher levels of socio-economic development and integration, each of these key drivers needs to be comprehensively addressed within the framework of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad).

Team Leader: Tim Hughes
Team: Greg Mills, Neuma Grobbelaar, Ross Herbert, William Mabena, Mark Shaw, Elizabeth Sidiropoulos
ISBN: 1-919969-02-0