It is the culmination of 18 months of original research (2024-2025) conducted by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) Futures Programme to:
- identify systemic opportunities and challenges in the BRICS climate and energy agenda, with particular focus on China and South Africa;
- envision alternative and preferred futures for BRICS energy governance, grounded in the perspectives of diverse stakeholders; and
- develop transformative strategies that decision-makers can act on, grounded in collaboration, foresight and policy innovation.
The report is structured to move from foundational context to systemic action:
- Building the context (Sections 1-3): These sections establish why the expanded BRICS bloc, now and responsible for half of global emissions, is the most consequential arena in global climate politics. It introduces a functional actor typology, from Structural Pivots like China to Incumbent Guardians like Russia, and identifies the innovation niches currently challenging the dominant fossil industrial regime.
- The narrative battle (Section 4): This section argues that technical and financial solutions alone are insufficient. It explores how narrative sovereignty and culturally grounded frames, such as Eco-Ubuntu and Energy Sovereignty, are preconditions for policy success in diverse BRICS contexts.
- The action framework (Sections 5-7): This is the core of the report. It presents six concrete insights for decision-makers and introduces the BRICS Climate and Energy Compass, a five-axis framework for sovereign, just and resilient transitions. It further details three strategic priorities for funders, namely systemic reform of the financial architecture, catalysing investment in hard-to-abate sectors and localising climate finance at the community level.
- Implementation pathways (Section 8): The final section provides a tactical roadmap for the next five years, establishing accountability mechanisms and regime flip metrics to ensure BRICS climate commitments translate into material transformation.
