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Estimating the Economic Impact of Chinese BRI Investment in Africa

China’s investment in African infrastructure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative has proven to be both transformative and controversial. While investment projects are helping Africa to close its infrastructure gap, they have also raised fears of runaway debt levels.

Summary:

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has transformed developing countries’ infrastructure financing options.
Determining the development impact of Chinese investment projects remains challenging, not least because many are still under way.
In African countries like Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria, BRI projects have resulted in marked improvements to sectors like transportation.
The BRI offers significant opportunities for African countries to address their substantial infrastructure deficit, but it also presents risks to the environment and debt sustainability.
The impact of BRI projects will not be evenly shared among BRI recipient countries in Africa. Countries that are resource-rich and strong commodity exporters will benefit more than smaller economies.

The views expressed in this publication/article are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA).