In April 2025, South Africa and the Netherlands convened a seminal Futures Dialogue in Pretoria, blending climate and energy diplomacy with strategic foresight. Timed to align with South Africa’s G20 presidency and the African Union’s elevation to full G20 membership, the dialogue reflected a growing recognition that conventional diplomacy, bound by rigid timelines, power asymmetries, and narrowly transactional processes and agendas, is ill-equipped to tackle the long-term, systemic crises facing our planet. Addressing key challenges of climate change, energy insecurity and socio-economic inequality demands not only technical solutions but also new diplomatic frameworks capable of engaging with uncertainty, contestation and transformation. Foresight can offer value here. Depoliticising topics to identify shared values and pathways. Drawing on foresight methods such as scenario planning, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and the Three Horizons Framework, the dialogue experimented with new foresight-oriented forms of engagement. Discussions were robust and candid, identifying concerns with the status quo, reframing dominant climate and energy narratives, and exploring innovations that may reimagine the future of Africa-Europe relations in authentic, fair and sustainable ways.
Reimagining Diplomacy: Inside the Futures Dialogue
The Futures Dialogue, hosted by SAIIA, the Clingendael Institute and the ISS African Futures Programme, brought together South African and Dutch government officials, researchers and diplomats. The format was intentionally designed and structured to replace formal negotiation scripts with participatory foresight exercises.
Participants engaged in collaborative reflection on:
- Dominant narratives shaping energy diplomacy, including the “just energy transition” and potential tensions between decarbonisation and energy poverty.
- Emerging opportunities, such as Africa’s potential in green hydrogen exports, critical mineral beneficiation and circular economy models.
- Shared geopolitical and structural challenges, from climate finance challenges to infrastructure deficits and asymmetric trade relationships amidst overall international trade instability.
The core focus of the dialogue was to explore how long-term thinking can complement short-term decision-making that acts on information about the future.
Forecasts from the ISS African Futures Programme revealed stark development dilemmas: while Africa’s population and energy demand are set to soar, the continent faces widespread energy poverty and carbon lock-in due to fossil fuel dependencies. Foresight helped unpack these forecasts, surfacing underlying assumptions and leverage points for cooperation in a systemic and futures-oriented way.
Breaking Diplomatic Gridlock with Foresight
Strategic foresight played a pivotal role in creating an open, informal space for generative dialogue outside bureaucratic constraints, geopolitical positions, and diplomatic conventions. Unlike traditional diplomacy, which tends to prioritise risk management and sovereignty, foresight encourages exploration and systems thinking – identifying shared solutions, common interests and shared values. Several key methods were used:
1. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Unpacking “Used Futures”: Through CLA, participants surfaced the layered assumptions informing diplomatic stalemates. At the level of litany, headlines portray Africa as energy-deficient and Europe as technology-rich. Systemic analysis revealed deeper patterns of extractive trade and unequal investment. At the myth and metaphor levels, “aid dependency”, “climate action as a burden”, and “growth at all costs” were entrenched logics exposed.
These clichéd narratives were reframed and transformed in the Futures Dialogue and new metaphors emerged: “mutual benefit”, “climate as development catalyst” and “Africa as a renewable powerhouse”. This shift from reactive to proactive thinking laid the foundation for alternative futures where climate equity and technological cooperation reinforce each other.
2. Three Horizons Framework: Navigating Change Across Time: Participants used the Three Horizons Framework to distinguish between incremental “sustainable innovations” and deeper “transformative innovations”. Near-to-long-term relevant interventions were mapped, for example:
- Horizon 1 (immediate interventions): grid upgrades and small-scale renewable projects.
- Horizon 2 (transitional actions): blended finance instruments and regional trade facilitation.
- Horizon 3 (preferred futures): decentralised energy systems, AU-EU co-governance of climate-resilient infrastructure for climate change, and democratised technology access.
This method helped stakeholders identify “seeds of change” that were already emerging, such as South Africa–Netherlands collaborations on green hydrogen, and position them as pathways to systemic transformation.
3. Trust Through Informal Exchange: By removing the constraints of formal negotiation structures, the strategic foresight setting created space for candid exchange and the building of cross-cultural trust. This environment enabled participants to engage with speculative and transformative questions such as “What would a circular energy economy look like?” and “How can Africa lead, rather than follow, in global climate governance?” This type of explorative questioning is typically deprioritised in formal bilateral forums. Through foresight methodologies, these critical enquiries were welcomed and received the sustained attention and depth of deliberation they require.
Figure 1: Traditional vs Foresight-enhanced Diplomacy
The structure allowed for role-playing, imagination, and long-term thinking, bridging government departmental silos and national agendas. In doing so, it offered a rare space for co-designing futures beyond defending fixed positions.
Toward a New Paradigm of Africa-Europe Cooperation
Systemic innovations that emerged from the dialogue with the potential to recalibrate Africa-Europe climate and energy relations, included:
- Green Industrialisation: Both parties recognised the need to move beyond extractive models. For South Africa, that means upstream beneficiation of critical minerals (e.g., platinum, manganese) and building out local manufacturing for renewable technologies to accelerate the circular economy. For the Netherlands, it requires new R&D partnerships, considering technology transfer and value chain localisation. Foresight enabled participants to imagine a future where green hydrogen is jointly developed and governed, with both partners benefiting from internal industry growth and exports.
- Transformative Climate Finance: Current climate finance mechanisms are dominated by loans and debt, undermining the equity principles they purport to advance. Participants deliberated on innovations like debt-for-climate swaps, regional green bonds, and co-investment platforms. Strategic foresight helped surface the mismatch between the urgency of transition and the sluggishness of prevailing finance systems.
- Narrative Sovereignty and Power Shift: The reframing of Africa as a global leader in climate innovation was among the dialogue’s most potent insights. Metaphors like “Africa leads” and “climate sovereignty” counteracted narratives of dependency and reasserted African agency. Such symbolic shifts are not superficial. They are essential preconditions for institutional and policy transformation.
The Promise of Anticipatory Diplomacy
The SA-Netherlands Futures Dialogue illuminated that diplomacy does not have to be confined to summitry or transactional agreements. When infused with strategic foresight, it becomes a channel for shared imagination and joint action. Foresight generates the cognitive and emotional conditions for transformative cooperation, rooted in imagination, curiosity, and long-term responsibility.
To move from pilot to practice, a main recommendation is for both governments to consider institutionalising foresight within their foreign ministries. Dedicated “anticipatory diplomacy” task teams could prepare for long-term risks and opportunities, building resilience to climate shocks, geopolitical volatility and systemic fragilities.
As we approach COP30 and confront cascading global crises, one question becomes more urgent: Could South Africa and the Netherlands pioneer a new model of diplomacy? The call is for an approach to diplomacy that doesn’t just react to crises but actively shapes the conditions for shared, transformative climate and energy futures.
